As the upcoming debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump approaches, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Recent polls offer a fresh perspective on the evolving dynamics of the 2024 presidential race, shedding light on the current status of Harris’ campaign and the broader electoral landscape.
About a month ago, POLITICO outlined five crucial indicators to watch for in the election’s trajectory, extending beyond the direct Harris-Trump matchup. The latest data reveals that while Harris’ momentum has experienced a temporary halt, it has not entirely reversed. Her popularity continues to grow, and Democratic enthusiasm remains strong, surpassing the energy levels seen during President Joe Biden’s campaign.
Current Polling Insights
Recent polling data shows that while Trump had a narrow 2-point advantage in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, Harris holds a slight national lead, ranging from 1 to 3 percentage points on average. This lead is marginally closer to Hillary Clinton’s narrow 2-point popular vote victory in 2016 rather than Biden’s more substantial 4-point win in 2020, given the Republicans’ current edge in the Electoral College.
In key battleground states, the competition remains intense. Polling averages from RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin show that the seven critical states in play are within a 3-point range in either direction. Harris’ strongest position is in Wisconsin, with a 2.7-point lead according to FiveThirtyEight, while Trump holds his largest advantage in Arizona, with a 2.1-point edge per the Silver Bulletin.
Evaluating Harris’ Favorability
Kamala Harris’ favorability ratings have shown a steady increase. As of June 27, her favorability was at 39 percent; by August 14, it had risen to 45 percent, and now stands at 48 percent. Although her favorable ratings have not reached overwhelming levels, they are still better than Trump’s average favorability of 44 percent.
Interestingly, the New York Times/Siena College poll reveals that Harris and Trump have nearly identical favorable/unfavorable ratings: 46 percent favorable/51 percent unfavorable for Harris and 46 percent favorable/52 percent unfavorable for Trump. However, other data suggests a slight favorability edge for Harris.
Debate Impact and Voter Knowledge
The upcoming debate holds significant implications for both candidates. A recent poll indicates that while 90 percent of voters feel they know all they need to about Trump, only 71 percent feel the same about Harris. This discrepancy means Harris has more room for improvement or decline based on her debate performance, whereas Trump’s numbers are less likely to shift dramatically.
Third-Party Votes and Their Decline
The potential for a significant third-party vote in the 2024 election has diminished following the Democratic candidate switch and the near-end of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign. Recent polls, including the New York Times/Siena College survey, have shown a sharp decrease in third-party interest, with Kennedy no longer consistently included in poll options. Current data reflects a steep drop in third-party voting intentions from 12.2 percent in July to just 3 percent now, without Kennedy’s influence.
Voter Enthusiasm and Engagement
Enthusiasm among voters is crucial for both parties. Recent polling shows that Democrats and Republicans are now nearly equal in enthusiasm levels, with 72 percent of Democrats and 69 percent of Republicans reporting high enthusiasm. This enthusiasm is mirrored in voter intentions, with 63 percent of both Harris and Trump supporters indicating they are “almost certain” to vote.
Economic Perceptions and Trust
Economic issues continue to be a major factor in the race. Although Trump maintains an edge in perceived economic competence, the gap has narrowed slightly. In the latest polls, Trump is trusted by 51 percent of voters to handle the economy, compared to Harris’ 43 percent. Closing this gap remains a significant challenge for Harris, who aims to match or surpass Biden’s 2020 performance in economic trust.
National Sentiment on Country’s Direction
Public sentiment about the country’s direction remains largely negative. According to recent data, 27 percent of Americans believe the country is on the right track, while 63 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction. Harris is attempting to leverage this dissatisfaction by positioning herself as a proponent of change, despite being part of the current administration. Her campaign’s upcoming “New Way Forward Tour” signals a strategic push to capitalize on this narrative.