The Korean Peninsula is home to two distinct nations—North Korea and South Korea. Yet within South Korea itself, opinions on the threat posed by its northern neighbor diverge sharply, reflecting a broader divide within the nation. This rift has persisted through a turbulent history marked by war, authoritarianism, economic upheavals, and uneven growth. Today, it remains exacerbated by North Korea’s continued nuclear threats and weapon advancements.
South Korean society exhibits a spectrum of reactions to North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, influenced by various factors including age, political orientation, and personal experiences. While older generations and conservatives often express heightened concern over North Korea’s intentions, younger South Koreans also grapple with fears about potential aggression. Conversely, some older individuals, accustomed to North Korea’s historical hostility, remain relatively unfazed.
The state of inter-Korean relations fluctuates with South Korea’s political leadership. Liberal administrations generally foster dialogue, as evidenced by previous summits between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in. In contrast, conservative administrations, such as the current one led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, adopt a more confrontational stance, often leading to increased provocations from Pyongyang and heightened media scrutiny in South Korea.
Despite the persistent threats from North Korea, some South Koreans dismiss the nuclear menace as rhetoric without substantive backing. However, for many, the rapid progression of North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs remains a source of significant anxiety. According to experts, North Korea may possess up to 60 nuclear warheads, though there are still technical challenges to be overcome.
A 2023 survey conducted by the Korea Institute for National Unification revealed that 45% of South Koreans are concerned about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, while 30% are not. These sentiments often intensify following major provocations, such as missile tests or nuclear threats.
For some South Koreans, the prospect of a nuclear attack feels imminent. Kim Jaehyun, a 22-year-old law student, meticulously prepares for potential conflict by stockpiling military gear and participating in security seminars. His concerns are partly rooted in a 2022 incident involving a North Korean drone violating an inter-Korean agreement. In contrast, Shin Nari, a 34-year-old graduate student specializing in North Korean studies, has taken practical steps to prepare for a possible nuclear attack, including storing emergency supplies.
Historical context plays a crucial role in shaping South Korean attitudes. The Korean War, which began in 1950, left the peninsula technically still at war, with a 1953 armistice rather than a formal peace treaty. North Korea’s nuclear program, which began in earnest in the 1990s, has involved numerous missile and nuclear tests aimed at developing a credible nuclear deterrent.
While some experts, including former U.S. intelligence official Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker of Los Alamos National Laboratory, argue that North Korea’s strategic decisions could increase the risk of conflict, others maintain that the United States-South Korea military alliance acts as a significant deterrent against a full-scale attack. Nonetheless, skepticism about the reliability of the U.S. commitment has grown, with a noticeable portion of the South Korean populace supporting the development of an independent nuclear capability.
Recent developments, such as North Korea’s satellite launch in November, which Seoul and Washington interpreted as a test of long-range missile technology, have further fueled public anxiety. This fear is reflected in personal preparedness measures, such as the construction of private bunkers, as exemplified by Jung Myungja, who recently invested in a bunker to safeguard her family in case of a nuclear incident.
In summary, South Korea’s diverse responses to the North Korean threat underscore a nation grappling with its precarious geopolitical situation. The division in public sentiment highlights the complexity of living under the constant shadow of a nuclear-armed neighbor, even as South Koreans continue to navigate their daily lives amidst this ongoing tension.