Republican President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to further reshape the federal judiciary, aiming to appoint a new wave of conservative judges who may surpass the 234 he nominated during his first term. With the Republican Party regaining control of the Senate, Trump is expected to have a smoother path to filling potential vacancies on the U.S. Supreme Court and over 100 positions on lower courts across the country.
“Trump remade the federal judiciary in his first term, and now he has the opportunity to cement that vision for an entire generation,” stated John Collins, a professor at George Washington University Law School.
The anticipated appointments of life-tenured judges are likely to solidify a more conservative federal judiciary, one that may scrutinize environmental and financial regulations while supporting Trump’s agenda amidst legal challenges.
During his first four years in office, Trump successfully appointed three U.S. Supreme Court justices, establishing a 6-3 conservative majority, alongside 54 judges to 13 intermediate appeals courts. This marked the second-highest number of judicial appointments by any president in a single term. Currently, Republican appointees comprise half of all active appellate judges and hold majorities on six circuit courts, many of whom are affiliated with the influential conservative legal group, the Federalist Society.
The legal philosophy of “originalism,” which interprets the U.S. Constitution based on its 18th-century context, has been pivotal in recent rulings that have restricted abortion access, expanded gun rights, and limited government regulation.
In his first term, Trump relied heavily on Leonard Leo from the Federalist Society for guidance on judicial nominees. This time around, he has enlisted different conservative allies focused on judicial appointments, including Mike Davis, founder of the Article III Project and former chief counsel for nominations under Republican Senator Chuck Grassley.
“I believe Trump’s most significant achievement in his first term was transforming the federal judiciary,” Davis remarked ahead of Tuesday’s election. “I hope he continues this momentum with even bolder and more fearless judges.”
Davis emphasized that anyone seeking his assistance for judicial appointments must demonstrate “concrete evidence of loyalty to Trump.” Potential candidates for key appeals court vacancies include notable figures from Trump’s previous appointments such as U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, who dismissed a high-profile classified documents case against Trump; U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk in Texas; and U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle in Florida, known for ruling against the Biden administration’s COVID-19 mask mandate.
While Trump’s capacity to reshape the judiciary will depend on available vacancies—currently 47 seats are open with more expected—he faces competition from outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden, who has pending nominees for 28 of those seats. An analysis by the American Constitution Society indicates that over the next four years, an additional 247 judges will be eligible for semi-retirement.
Despite these constraints, Collins predicts that Trump will likely secure conservative majorities on several courts and could potentially flip liberal majorities elsewhere.
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