During his June appearance on the Business and Technology podcast All-In, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump made a bold promise to grant green cards to all foreign-born U.S. college graduates. This proposal was met with applause from the tech sector, which has long championed pro-immigration policies. Influential figures like J.D. Vance and Elon Musk, both with ties to Silicon Valley, helped shape the belief that a Trump presidency would foster more legal high-skilled immigration. However, a closer look at Trump’s first-term record suggests that such promises may not come to fruition.
Trump’s actions as president—particularly concerning the H-1B visa program—paint a different picture. The H-1B program, the largest U.S. temporary work visa for high-skilled workers, provides crucial talent to industries like technology, healthcare, and engineering. Every year, 65,000 H-1B visas are issued to highly educated foreign professionals, with an additional 20,000 reserved for those holding advanced degrees from U.S. universities. Jorge Loweree, Managing Director of Programs at the American Immigration Council (AIC), calls the H-1B program “a critical tool” for maintaining the U.S.’s global leadership in the tech sector.
Yet, under the Trump administration, the H-1B program saw significant regulatory changes that made it more difficult for applicants to qualify. Through his Buy American, Hire American executive order, Trump instructed government agencies to overhaul the system, with the stated aim of protecting U.S. workers. The result was an increase in H-1B visa denial rates and higher costs for applicants. Denial rates for H-1B visas soared from 6% in FY 2015 to 24% by FY 2018, according to AIC data. Additionally, attorney fees for filing H-1B applications rose sharply, from $2,000 to $4,500 per applicant.
Changes under Trump also lengthened the process for H-1B visa holders’ spouses to receive their dependent visas (H-4), with some applicants facing delays of up to two years. The administration also eliminated the prior deference policy, which previously allowed existing H-1B visa holders to extend their status without redoing the entire application process. This was later reinstated by President Joe Biden.
David J. Bier, Director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute, is confident that Trump’s second term would bring further restrictions to the H-1B program. “I am certain that a second Trump administration will impose even more limitations on H-1B visas,” Bier says.
The impact of H-1B workers on the U.S. economy is significant. According to the Cato Institute, high-skilled immigrants increase productivity and innovation in the U.S., contributing to the creation of patents and the growth of new businesses. These workers, who predominantly specialize in STEM fields, also help boost wages and employment for native-born workers, disproving the common myth that immigrants steal jobs.
Despite his promises to expand legal immigration, Trump’s first-term record suggests that the reality is much more restrictive. If the pattern continues, a second Trump administration could further limit the H-1B visa program, harming U.S. innovation and economic growth. For the U.S. to maintain its competitive edge in the global economy, it may need to reconsider policies that hinder the influx of skilled workers who contribute so much to the nation’s progress.
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