As President-elect Donald Trump reaffirms his commitment to executing the largest deportation in American history, experts warn of significant logistical and legal challenges that could impede this ambitious plan. The complexities of identifying, detaining, and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants present a daunting task for the U.S. immigration system.
The current backlog of 3.7 million immigration court cases exemplifies the difficulties ahead. At the existing pace, it would take approximately four years to resolve these cases; however, Trump’s mass deportation strategy could extend this timeline to an astonishing 16 years, according to an Axios analysis.
Without a substantial increase in immigration judges and resources, the system would be overwhelmed by millions of new cases. Trump’s administration would likely need to establish new detention centers across the country to accommodate those suspected of being in the U.S. illegally—potentially holding them for extended periods.
Estimates suggest that implementing such a sweeping operation could cost taxpayers between $150 billion and $350 billion. The current immigration court system affords due process rights to undocumented immigrants, including those seeking asylum, complicating the expedited removal process.
Recent data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University reveals that immigration courts closed 900,000 cases from October 1, 2023, to September 30, 2024—the highest number cleared in a fiscal year. However, even at this pace, all active cases may not be resolved until 2028.
Adding to the complexity are the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants who would fall under Trump’s mass deportation plan. If these individuals are included in the backlog, it could push resolution timelines into 2040.
Tom Homan, appointed as Trump’s border czar, emphasized that the administration would prioritize deporting individuals considered public safety threats. He stated that addressing criminal and national security threats would be paramount in shaping deportation efforts.
Trump and his Republican allies have indicated plans to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to facilitate rapid removals. However, experts caution that this law may not apply without a declared war and could lead to legal challenges from immigrant advocates.
The potential for significant immigration reform legislation exists under a GOP-controlled Congress; however, any attempts to alter due process protections are likely to face resistance from both Democrats and some Republicans.
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