In April 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected by a significant majority and initially indicated that he would serve only one term. However, as the country faced multiple challenges, including a conflict with Russia and widespread damage to infrastructure, the prospect of holding elections in the future has become uncertain.
Martial law, which was instituted in response to Russia’s invasion in February 2022, has been in effect for almost 18 months, with the most recent renewal occurring on May 22. Under Ukraine’s current constitution, elections cannot take place during martial law, making the question of holding an election in March 2024 complicated.
President Zelenskyy expressed openness to holding an election, contingent on amending the electoral code to allow it. He also cited financial concerns, estimating the cost of an election during peacetime to be around $210.64 million (5 billion hrynia). He indicated a willingness to proceed if financial support were provided by the US and Europe, but stressed that he wouldn’t divert funds from other critical needs, such as defense.
The extensive damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure, estimated at $234.13 billion as of June 2023, and the displacement of millions of people, both internally and externally, further complicate the logistics of organizing elections. President Zelenskyy highlighted the need for “appropriate opportunities” for citizens to access polls, especially considering the displaced population. He also emphasized the importance of allowing military personnel to vote, given their role in defending democracy amid the ongoing conflict.
Russia’s decision to allow elections under martial law in occupied Ukrainian territories further adds to the complexity of the situation. The annexation of Ukrainian regions by Russia in 2022, following the invasion, has raised concerns about the legitimacy of any elections held in those areas.
Amid these challenges, the prospect of Ukrainians being able to vote in 2024 remains uncertain. President Zelenskyy’s desire to fulfill promises and maintain societal support, coupled with the logistical and financial challenges, will likely shape the decision on whether elections can be held as initially planned.